Normally I would not prognosticate a presidential election this close but I will although not with supreme confidence as there will be millions of Americans default voting against Trump. It will come down to the economy as it usually does. Harris can point to this or that positive economic indicator but what people are paying for groceries is still too high. Too many people still remember the Trump pre-pandemic economy when a trip to the supermarket was more normal. This remains an albatross for Kamala Harris. People also have been paying too much at the pump although I went to the station the other day and the cost took a remarkable dip. What a coincidence! Most voters are not academics and don't intellectualize that presidents don't really control the price of oil. It was the Biden/Harris Administration during this time. Correlation in the public mind and that's usually enough. That the polling is still this close shows the defects in Trump's personality have had a negligible impact. Disposable income trumps Trump you could say. I want more disposable income to buy cigars. To the undecideds Harris might be different than Biden but why take the chance? If you vote wrong that's a long four years. Trendy issues like climate change and trans issues those are more issues for the Left imo not bread and butter for most folk. Abortion could have a significant but overall limited impact since people's views run the gamut. It's the economy stupid.
Trump wins. Not by a landslide but he comes out on top when the dust settles. My somewhat shaky prognostication.
Too close to call, I guess. In 2000, Gore got 500,000 more of the popular vote, SCOTUS decided on the electoral college. In 2016, Hillary got 3,000,000 more than Trump. In 2020, Biden got 7,000,000 more than Trump. But Trump won the electoral college. Naturally, some voters die, and new voters appear, but the trend seems probable. Hence the 'battle ground' states (and the uselessness of one man - one vote. They predict record turnout and probably all sorts of controversies. No snark, just opining.
ReplyDeletePolling is far from being an exact science. The Electoral College - like Daylight Savings Time a lot of people are against it but nothing's ever done about it. Whoever wins if it's close Trump or Harris does not have a mandate. They need to be humble in victory (lol) and acknowledge leading a divided country.
ReplyDeleteMy prognostication is very simplistic you could say and is really based on one thing. THE PRICE OF FOOD. Sure there's other things too. Illegals near the top of the list but push comes to shove people want more disposable income. So more people have jobs but wages not keeping up with inflation. People are tired of paying close to $100 for just a few items in their shopping carriage. If people were tired of Trump Harris would have a clear lead by now. Of course I could be wrong.
ReplyDeleteCould be. Hard for me as I don't make wages anymore. Just checking some wage stats and find Trump Admin up $5k, Biden up $11k and/or Trump up $4,4k, Biden up $10k. But inflation outpaces wages since the pandemic. Both candidates have offered solutions. I don't understand Trump's except the old trickle down thing. RFK jr. probably has some eat road kill solution?
ReplyDeleteWhen was the last time someone's boss said geeez I was reading about the cost of living going up so I'm going to give everybody a raise.
ReplyDeleteIn all my years, boss had little say in raises, other than performance reviews. The raises were determined in some far away ivory tower
ReplyDeleteHR HQ where they had no idea of what workers did all day. When I had people on OT working Saturday mornings, I'd stop by McDonalds and get a couple sacks of McBreakfasts. Out of my pocket - seemed better than nothing at 6 AM. Price gouging - big during covid. When
costs went back down, retail didn't.
It's like when Fancy Feast went up in price the reason given was this or that was in short supply. That was a while ago though. What's the reason now?
ReplyDeleteNever had the problem when more people had unions.
ReplyDeleteMixed feelings on unions based on last two jobs. They get you the bennies but the working environment still sucks.
ReplyDeleteYou think the chef business is that way? How about mailmen, sewer workers, car salesmen etc? Or is it specific situations rather than the type of job? I unloaded boxcars while in college and the working environment was better than that doggone calculus class.
ReplyDeleteMy mother said in jobs you're gonna meet a real garden variety of people. She wasn't kidding.
ReplyDeleteWise mother. How's she doing?
DeleteBed bound mostly but vitals always good. Some days she eats like a trucker. Responds well.
Deletegarden variety people - do cats think we all look alike? Accidently steped on Mikey's tail yesterday. Let out a scream like a banshee.
ReplyDeleteHim, not me.
I feel horrible when that happens. I literally have to apologize to the cat.
DeleteOf course. Otherwise they think it was deliberate.
DeleteI see the Georgia GOP made purge of the voting rolls there. Among those disenfranchised was a group of Nuns. Go figure.
DeleteIllegal nuns?
DeleteGetting back to the cats. At least they don't hold grudges.
DeleteWhen ours is in a snit, he sits with his back to us, like we don't exist. Might as well have a kid.
DeleteLady in the paper with 3 cats - tried to take them to the vet. She says
ReplyDeletecats are transactional - you provide food, water, liter box and warm place. They let you pet them once in awhile.
Aloof. They know who their food source is.
ReplyDeleteCat question for the expert - Our old cat lounges around most of the day, but 2-3 times a week he tears all through the house like a Pitbull is on his tail. What's the deal?
ReplyDeleteDon't know. The only times this has happened to me is when a cat has a bad flea problem they're not very active kind of depressed then by whatever method you rid them of the fleas they're free again and have bursts of energy. Other than that geeez man I didn't get my cat psychology degree yet.
ReplyDeleteSometimes when there's an autumnal crisp in the air they might do that. You got a leakage from a Red Bull plant nearby or something?
ReplyDeleteMust be a personal thing. He had his eye removed when he was a teenager and has never been outside in 17 years. Even Jackson
ReplyDeleteAndromeda can't figure it out. BTW - does he have cat scratch fever?
My sister had that once. Sounds like a punk band.
ReplyDelete