Dick Morris, as if to stay one step ahead of the z-man, says in today's column that Obama's support among the black leadership is not as strong as one might expect and that this in turn will lead to less black voter turnout for him in '08. The Morris analysis seems to be that he's too white but isn't this the same stereotype that Joe Biden recently engaged in? Is he supposed to be more like a rap star and say "a'ight"? At any rate if it's Rudy vs. Obama, as I suspect (as Beth says) that Hillary will beat herself out of the race, blacks will turn out for Obama or, put another way, they will vote against Rudy. I've heard African-Americans talk about Giuliani over the years and their dislike runs deep, he's a definite lightning rod for blacks. Blacks will not vote for him simply because, let's say there's a high-profile case of police brutality or the shooting death of an unarmed black man and the black leadership, feeling justice isn't being done, wants the Dept. of Justice to take over, it won't happen in Rudy's house.
There's also the issue of partial-birth which he supports, this hardly makes him a "moderate" on the abortion issue. He could therefore turn off pro-choice voters who want some restrictions placed on the practice but there is a new breed of conservative out there for whom the social issues are not as important as, say, the war or law and order, people like Sean Hannity. 9/11 does not entitle him to be president of the United States and anyway Americans are not going to elect someone who will prolong the Iraqi quagmire ad infinitum.
Bottom line, all things considered, by my calculus Rudy loses to Obama in '08. Take that Dick!
One of the advantages of Rudy is to appeal to the middle, or crossover territory.
ReplyDeleteI agree, it does not matter what he says on life as long as he appoints those judges.
He is and has always been a fiscal conservative, so what he says on global warming needs to be read in that context. What does it matter if he, like Bush, says "Glabal warming is a problem", and wrings his hands a bit - He will not sign anything that kills the economy, and that is the real concern.
Hillary will be very hard to beat in this anti-war Bush fatigue climate. She will work the pro-choice angle to death with her natural constituency - women.
Rudy just might be able to counter this.
But Rudy is on record as having said he would pay for his daughter's abortion if need be. At least former NY Governor Mario Cuomo always made it a point to emphasize his personal opposition to abortion though his reasoning was very sophistical. It all depends on where you place the social issues on your priority scale, I'm guessing Sean Hannity doesn't rate them very high, but in the end Rudy will not get the endorsement of pro-life conservatives, it ain't in the cards.
ReplyDeleteYou assume Rudy will get to the nomination level, he is not a shoe-in. It is very early in the race, and early frontrunners do not always get the nomination.
ReplyDeleteNY Governor Mario Cuomo
ReplyDeleteYUCK! IsHY, PUKE
I think that Rudy can become the next Ronald Reagan..
ReplyDeleteLets face it, Rudy is getting a hell of a lot of conservative support wherever I look. Just look at his latest poll results in a state like New jersey who is a real Democratic thresh hold.. He is beating Hillary by almost 10 points there.
http://hillaryspot.nationalreview.com/
Even with his record on social issues, he is very anti Liberal.. He is anti terror anti Hillary, anti-Kerry, anti Islam .
So i think he’s got a real good shot.
I think if he were more, and I hate this word, "moderate" on the abortion issue the social cons would look past this. I mean there's nothing like parental notification laws or banning partial-birth to warm the cockles of a pro-lifers heart. He need not be as adamant as Hill is on the feticide thing.
ReplyDeleteI'll vote for Rudy....I may not agree with everything about him, but, NYer's say he was their "patton" after 9/11, and I trust them.
ReplyDeleteI'll vote for Hunter....and I won't mind doing it.
I'll vote for Huckabee....don't know much about him, but he's not McCain.
I'll vote for Brownback....although I don't like his stance on the surge.
I'll vote for Romney....(although some of his views are questionable, and I'm not talking about his religion. If he knows God and loves Him, that's all I can ask for. His religious relationship is between him and God, IMO.)
I'll vote for Tancredo or Newt...in a heartbeat.
But McCain will make me vote for someone else who's NOT a RINO or a dem.
C. Connor, doesn't the fact that Guiliani is up in the polls in NJ tell you that they realize he is more liberal than conservative??
ReplyDeleteIt's not about having people win who have and R next to their name, I want conservatives, not just Republicans in office!
But Beth, we always can't get exactly what we want. It's a "get the best we can" deal
ReplyDeleteThe main thing is as I've said over and over again is to keep the Libs out of the White House"
I know how you feel on this subject and I’m not blaming you.. But what we must do whatever we can to win in 08, and we must put in some one that could beat the other side or lets face it, we are in for a lot of trouble.